So, you drew Paraguay in the office sweepstake? Congratulations. You’ll likely have just over two weeks in which to keep that flame of hope fanned. But then it'll be time to get real. Only eight teams have ever won the World Cup. Seven of them are here. And one of them is England. But who else might be in actual, serious contention?
Spain are the bookies’ favourites, with a young squad that won the Euros in style under their impressively jacked 64-year-old coach, Luis de la Fuente. Settled, confident and with an absurdly good midfield and a Messi-like Lamine Yamal as their talisman they will take some beating.
But then there’s France. It’s coach Didier Deschamps’ last dance after 14 years in the job. They have the strongest and deepest squad in the competition, and could legitimately field two teams with a chance of winning. Will Deschamps let them off his tactical leash? With a front-line of Mbappé, Olise and Dembélé, it may not matter.
Let’s not forget Argentina. Can the holders become only the third team to go back-to-back? Given it was a Messi “last dance” narrative that carried them to victory last time, it’s hard to see it happening four years later when he’s pushing 40. But then he does have magic in his boots…
And lastly, Brazil, of whose demise reports are greatly exaggerated. They struggled in qualifying and the word “crisis” has been used, but the Selecao are lurking with intent under new coach Carlo Ancelotti, says Brazilian football expert Tim Vickery, co-author of Mundiales: A South American History of the World Cup.
“The main problem with Brazil in recent times has been coaching, and this is why, reluctantly, they've decided to appoint a foreign coach, Italian Carlo Ancelotti, which for many is seen as a real betrayal, especially the old guard who are saying: ‘We won the World Cup five times with Brazilian coaches. Why do we need Johnny Foreigner to come in?’ Well, you haven't won it for 24 years, and Johnny Foreigner helped you qualify this time round.
“Of all the big club coaches, Carlo is the one who can find the transition to international football easier because he's not ‘detail, detail, detail’. He's a pragmatist who's very, very good at managing the big egos, so there's no big struggle of a coach trying to impose a philosophy. He can just raise an eyebrow, Roger Moore-style, and there's instant credibility.
“He’s still a player at heart and he loves talent. He's trying to go with four up front and only two in centre midfield. The most fascinating thing he's saying to me is that he doesn't want anyone going to the World Cup thinking of ballon d’ors [FIFA’s individual award for the world’s best player], because the only way that this is going to work is if those four stars at the front sacrifice themselves for the team.
“He’s so clever too. At the first press conference, he said ‘After this, I'm going to do the press conferences in Portuguese’. Brilliant. It's great PR, but number two, it means he doesn't need to say very much. A Brazilian coach wouldn't be able to but because he's making the effort to do it in Portuguese? Carlo gets away with it. Genius.
“He's here to win it, you know. And he knows what he's getting into. He knows when I spoke to him the day he was appointed, that success is winning the world cup, and failure is anything else. He's only taking the job because he thinks, ‘yeah, we can win this’.”
