Take this as a sequel to the last Unpopular Opinion. That’s right, you still know nothing, Jon Snow. We scoff at conspiracy theorists, but how many of us have personally entered the mesosphere to see what shape the planet is with our own eyes? Would like to preface here, seeing your raised brow, that I am not a flat-earther. A flat-earther-sympathiser, if you would, because... can you really blame them?
In 2004, a New York Times article revealed that the city has 3,250 buttons on crosswalks, 2,500 of which do nothing. Traffic systems all over the world are regulated in different ways, but never at the sole command of the pedestrian. Another placebo in a similar vein: close door buttons in elevators.
We default to no-thinking so often that we practically operate on auto-pilot (automatic system vs reflective system, if you want a resource to google). According to a University of Southern California study in 2011, we’ll eat the same amount of week-old popcorn as fresh one so longas we’re in a movie theatre.
A fellow testament to the overriding power of cues is our availability heuristic. It’s the mental shortcut we take, referencing easily available information or prominent memory over factual data, to make judgments. This leads to overestimating probability in decisions based on recall; like worrying about plane crashes after hearing about one, despite car accidents being statistically far more prevalent.
“A good way to increase people’s fear of a bad outcome is to remind them of a related incident in which things went wrong,” economics professor Richard H Thaler and law professor Cass R Sunstein wrote in longtime bestseller Nudge. Thankfully, the opposite works the same way.
Like Neo, once your eyes are open to the Matrix, you can never unsee the subtle design tactics used. Such as the manipulation of user interfaces for online purchasing as opposed to opting out. This also applies to physical shopping, where prices in bigger sizes could make the item appear cheaper.
We are creatures of habit. Dangerously so, as Yale professor Dan M Kahan has found, if we’re smart. Kahan’s research indicates that individuals with higher cognitive reflection skills are prone to using their intelligence to defend pre-existing beliefs rather than assess new evidence objectively. There will always be commonfolk spreading unfounded doubt; on events from Apollo 11 moon landings circa1969 to Blue Origin all-female space flight circa2025.
Yet, there are also The Pentagon Papers of ’71 and the more recent FTX crypto fraud among many prominent incidents of whistleblowing. Not that we should entertain every conspiracy theory nor subscribe to fear-mongering. It will simply benefit us to acknowledge that we are highly suggestible than readily accept the status quo. To remain aware of ideologically motivated reasoning, and to always stay curious.
